(originally posted on rishabhkalia.com on July 4, 2018)
June-July is a busy time for sports fans with numerous important sporting events during this period. This year is no exception.
The biggest showpiece of the most popular sport on earth is underway (the quadrennial FIFA World Cup), Formula 1 has races lined up on 3 consecutive weekends (a first for the premier racing event), apart from international events in hockey, cricket and badminton.
This is also the time of baking summers (especially in north India), approaching monsoons, summer holidays for school children, first quarter target pressures for professionals, and long family vacations on some years.
Apart from these, there is another constant , year after year.
The oldest and most prestigious event on the tennis calendar opened its courts for its 131st edition on Monday.
8-time champion and last year's winner Roger Federer starts as the top seed, and the overwhelming favorite. Despite being off tennis for 3 months, and skipping the entire clay court season, his dominance in the past on grass leaves no one in doubts as to who you should put your money on.
Let's run through the draw to explore who the other bidders are.
(Note - As I write this, the first round of matches are almost over).
Quarter 1
In the first quarter of the draw, Federer looms large. He breezed through his first match without as much as breaking a sweat and dispelled any doubts of him being rusty after the break.
His path to the quarters looks pretty easy. Lukas Lacko in 2nd round, Leonardo Mayer in the 3rd, and Borna Coric/Adrian Mannarino in the 4th. None of them should be tough for the Swiss maestro to shrug off.
Roger Federer returns on way to his first round win against Dusan Lajovic.
The bottom part of this quarter seems quite competitive. Gael Monfils has already got the better of 23rd seeded Richard Gasquet, and faces Sam Querrey (11th seed) in a potential 3rd round clash. Querrey should prevail here.
The South African Kevin Andreson (seeded 8th) looks good to beat Kohlschreiber/Muller to advance to the 4th round against Querrey, and setup a repeat of last year's 4th round match where Querrey prevailed in 5 sets. That should be a cracker of a game.
Quarter 1 - Federer v/s Anderson/Querrey
Quarter 2
3rd seed Marin Cilic had an amazing Wimbledon last year. He had a good run upto the final where he came up short against Roger, losing in straight sets. He must be licking his wounds and raring to have another go at the title, to add to his solitary Grand Slam title (2014 US Open). He faces a potential third round clash with the Canadian Milos Raonic. This would be a nail-biter, but I would tip Cilic to advance basis his grass form.
In the bottom half of the quarter, Stanislas Wawrinka (Switzerland) has already caused a mini-upset of sorts by knocking out 6th seed Grigor Dimitrov. Although Stan has 3 Grand Slam titles to his name, I am calling it a mini-upset as he is currently on a tough comeback after two operations on his left knee.
The Guardian aptly captured it "...victory that must have been almost as satisfying as his three grand slam title wins."
Stan Wawrinka celebrates his victory over Grigor Dimitrov in the Men’s Singles first round at Wimbledon.
Wawrinka is no stranger to comebacks, and reaching back up to the very top. My article on him, written in 2014, captures this.
He should get past Tsitsipas, but John Isner in the 4th round should be an even match. Had Stan not been on a comeback, I would have called him favorite, but 50-50 as of now.
Quarter 2 - Marin Cilic v/s Wawrinka/Isner
Quarter 3
This quartet of the draw had ample heavyweights. However, as I write this, two are already out.
The Roland Garros finalist and 7th seed Dominic Thiem has pulled out during his first round match with an injury, while Fernando Verdasco has crashed out to Franciso Tiafoe of the US. These developments mean smooth sailing for the Serb Novak Djokovic uptil the quarters.
The bottom half of this quarter is where the action lies. Kei Nishikori of Japan and Bernard Tomic of Australia go head-to-head as early as the second round. The winner faces the mercurial Aussie Nick Kyrgios in the third round, the winner of which faces Alexander Zverev.
On current form, Zverev should get through to face Novak in the quarters, but this quarter of the draw is what you should be watching in the first few rounds.
Quarter 3 - Novak Djokovic v/s Alexander Zverev
Quarter 4
This ain't clay, but you can never count out the enigmatic Rafael Nadal, a two-time champion here. He is fresh off a highly successful clay season, winning an unprecedented 11th Roland Garros title, apart from his 11th Monte Carlo Masters, 11th Barcelona Masters and 8th Rome Masters.
The first significant hurdle he would face should be Fabio Fognini (Italy) in the 4th round. He has got the better of Nadal before at the big stage - a shock defeat in the 3rd round of US Open 2015. (Read my post on that game here)
However, Nadal looks in solid touch currently, as evidenced by his opening match against Dudi Sela, and should prevail.
The battle to face Nadal in the quarters seems easy. Juan Martin del Potro (5th seed) should sail through against Jack Sock/David Goffin in the 4th round to reach the quarters.
Juan Martin del Potro
Quarter 4 - Rafael Nadal v/s Juan Martin del Potro
Now I would stick my neck out and call the winners here.
Quarter 1 - Federer v/s Anderson/Querrey - Federer to sail through. Roger Federer
Quarter 2 - Marin Cilic v/s Wawrinka/Isner - This is tough to call. The mind says Cilic, while the gut feeling says that this is another of those years where Wawrinka comes into his own. Stan Wawrinka
Quarter 3 - Novak Djokovic v/s Alexander Zverev - Zverev has shown some brilliant performances over the last 12 months, and he has shown his prowess on the big stage as well. Djokovic wouldn't back down easily, but I would tip Zverev to take this in 5 sets. Alexander Zverev
Quarter 4 - Rafael Nadal v/s Juan Martin del Potro - Going by the amount of fatigue Nadal has been through in the clay season, and del Potro's booming forehands and past grass court performances, I would call del Potro to take this, in 4 sets. (Must add, that as a die-hard Rafa fan, I would love to be proved wrong). Juan Martin del Potro
So there goes my prediction for the semi-finalists. May the best man win!
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